hurricane irma what does the european model say the course will be

by Alysa Dare Published 3 years ago Updated 2 years ago 10 min read

What was Hurricane Irma?

Hurricane Irma’s track on the European model as of Saturday Sept 2. This is where it is predicted to be on the 11th. The European model for Irma is putting her off the coast of Delmarva the tenth to the twelfth of September. If that happens we will see some serious storm surge and a lot of rain and wind. Lots of rain and wind.

Why is Hurricane Irma's official forecast so far to the left?

As of late Saturday, the European model had Irma gaining strength to become a Category 4 hurricane and making landfall early Sunday near Tampa: No change to the ECMWF forecast at 12z. Intensifying Hurricane #Irma right up to landfall. 928 mb suggests dangerous high-end Cat 4. pic.twitter.com/M23XYh6Fhf — Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) September 9, 2017

How much influence does the European model have on hurricane forecasts?

Sep 14, 2017 · Hurricane Irma again demonstrated the inferiority of the top U.S. weather model. The National Hurricane Center accurately predicted the path of Hurricane Irma, which struck southwest Florida on ...

How fast did Hurricane Irma strengthen?

Sep 06, 2017 · HURRICANE Irma is on a collision course with Florida, according to a European storm monitoring computer model considered to be the best in the world. Express. Home of the Daily and Sunday Express.

See more

Sep 06, 2017 · The European model runs every 12 hours, so when the forecast plot above was made, National Hurricane Center forecasters were working off of the 00z run, which typically comes out at about 2:30am ET.

Which hurricane model is the European model?

ECMWF Model Description

The European Medium Range Forecast Model is considered one of the premiere global forecasting model for the mid-latitudes. In 2006, the ECMWF made improvements that resulted in accurate hurricane forecasting. The model is run twice a day at 0z and 12z.

What is the European model?

The European model is run by The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in Reading, England. Unlike NOAA, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which runs dozens of models, ECMWF runs one global model at high resolution.Apr 18, 2021

How accurate is the European model for hurricanes?

The study found that skill declined markedly for forecasts beyond two days into the future, and skill was lowest for small tropical cyclones. The European model had the lowest probability of correctly making a genesis forecast – near 20% – but had the fewest false alarms.Aug 20, 2020

Where did the European model say Hurricane Sandy would hit?

Hurricane Sandy was Forecast by U.S. Models to turn out to sea, while the European models forecasted a hit near New Jersey.Aug 11, 2015

What's the most accurate hurricane model?

The most well-known models – the Euro, GFS, Canadian, and others – all have ensembles. An ensemble is a collection of forecasts all valid at the same forecast time. For instance, the GFS is run many times with slightly varying initial conditions and physics to get the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS).Jul 1, 2021

What are the different hurricane tracking models?

The National Hurricane Center and other official tropical cyclone forecast centers make use of two different forms of dynamical model guidance during the forecast process: "early" and "late" models. Numerical models are typically run four times per day: 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC.

Why is European model more accurate?

European model outperforms big supercomputer

That's according to the National Hurricane Center forecast verification report. According to the Washington Post, it's because the European model is considered computationally more powerful. That's thanks to raw super computer power and the math behind the model.Aug 26, 2020

Which model is more accurate American or European?

While the American model can predict up to 16 days in advance, the European model can only predict up to 10 days in advance. Although the time frame is shorter, 10 days is typically seen as the “practical limit” of forecasting, and thus is more accurate than the American model.Jan 23, 2020

What is the most reliable spaghetti model?

The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting Model (ECMWF) is widely considered the best for predicting global weather patterns and has been beating the other models in terms of accuracy, but looking to rely on one model over another isn't the correct approach, said National Weather Service Meteorologist ...Oct 5, 2016

How many days in advance did the European model show Sandy hitting NYC?

eight days

SANDY MACDONALD: When the European Centre model came out, eight days before, I think the reaction was, “This is a really dangerous possibility, but it's so far in advance, we're going to just have to watch this.”

What is the difference between the European model and the American model weather?

-The European model focuses on medium-range weather prediction, while the American model does a lot more - it looks at short-, medium- and long-range global weather, along with atmospheric, ocean, coastal, hurricane and space weather.

How was Hurricane Sandy predicted?

On October 23, 2012, the path of Hurricane Sandy was correctly predicted by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) headquartered in Reading, England nearly eight days in advance of its striking the American East Coast.

Warnings that were overruled

The European Center is planning to build a next-generation supercomputing center in Italy and continues to outpace the U.S. in terms of forecast accuracy and computing power. Lessening the impact of this disparity, though, is the fact that American forecasters do have access to the European models' simulations, through a cooperative agreement.

What we need to do

When it comes to improving the GFS model, NOAA has further improvements planned. For example, the primary and backup computer system is set to go from 2.8 petaflops to 4.2 petaflops of computing power.

Which hurricane is threatening the Caribbean Islands?

For this reason, the European model now has an outsized influence on the forecasts for hurricanes around the world, including those in the Atlantic, and in particular Hurricane Irma, which presently threatens the Caribbean Islands as well as the southeastern United States.

What is the US analog to the European model?

The US analog to the European model is the Global Forecast System. It has a lower resolution, and it typically doesn't perform quite as well (proposed NOAA budget cuts will make matters worse, too). However, this GFS model has some benefits: it runs four times a day, and NOAA freely makes all of its data available to anyone who wants it.

What time does the 00z run?

The European model runs every 12 hours, so when the forecast plot above was made, National Hurricane Center forecasters were working off of the 00z run, which typically comes out at about 2:30am ET.

Is it true that "Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"?

For Floridians, it's absolutely a cliche to say, "Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.". In this case, it's also absolutely true. Eric Berger Eric Berger is the senior space editor at Ars Technica, covering everything from astronomy to private space to NASA, and author of the book Liftoff, about the rise of SpaceX.

Who is Eric Berger?

Eric Berger Eric Berger is the senior space editor at Ars Technica, covering everything from astronomy to private space to NASA, and author of the book Liftoff, about the rise of SpaceX. A certified meteorologist, Eric lives in Houston. Email [email protected] // Twitter @SciGuySpace. Advertisement.

Euro vs. GFS

Global weather models are good at representing the large-scale patterns in the atmosphere that steer hurricanes, but those models simply aren't fine-tuned enough to capture what's going on inside hurricanes, and this impacts their forecast ability, said Ryan Maue, a research meteorologist and adjunct scholar at the Cato Institute.

Social media: "Blessing and a curse"

The forecasts and models alone don't tell the full story of how information about hurricane risk reaches the public. The communication of that forecast is also critical to making sure communities know what is coming and what they need to do to prepare.

What is Hurricane Irma?

Hurricane Irma was a classic Cape Verde hurricane that will long be remembered for its severity and wide-ranging impacts to several islands in the Caribbean Sea and Florida. Like many of the most notorious Atlantic hurricanes, Irma began as a weak wave of low pressure accompanied by disorganized showers and thunderstorms which emerged off the west African coast on August 27th, near the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season (Fig. 1). Such disturbances move off the African coast every few days during August and September, however, most of them fail to develop into tropical cyclones. This can be due to a number of factors, including blasts of dry, stable air from the Saharan desert, strong upper-level westerly winds, or a lack of the necessary atmospheric “spin” needed to generate a counterclockwise circulation.

What do the white lines on the Irma ridge mean?

White lines with arrows indicate direction of steering, image indicates forward speed. Note Irma’s location over the north coast of Cuba, between the Bermuda ridge to the east and a ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico. The mid-upper trough between these ridges steered Irma to the northwest, then north.

Where did storm surge flooding occur?

In addition to the long periods of heavy rain and strong winds, storm surge flooding also occurred well away from the storm center, including the Jacksonville area, where strong and persistent onshore winds had been occurring for days before Irma’s center made its closest approach.

What is the National Hurricane Center?

The hurricane center sees computer models other people don't, judges individual models and uses a consensus of the better performing models, he said. The center also shows how well they do over time -- and they are doing better.

Why don't meteorologists stick to a single line or track?

What's key is that meteorologists don't stick to a single line or track because a slight change can mean a big difference , Mayfield said. For example, a tiny turn over Cuba, where mountains can eat up storms, can weaken Irma considerably.

How long does it take for a computer model to go out?

Usually they don't go much farther out in time than five days, and if they do, it's with decreasing accuracy.

How long does the hurricane cone last?

The trouble is with the spaghetti of models, people focus too intently on one line, Masters said. The hurricane center cone only goes out five days -- and people want to know if they are in danger earlier, Masters said.

Is Hurricane Irma a Category 6 storm?

The warning comes after several websites claimed Irma would become a Category 6 storm -- which does not exist -- that would wipe entire U.S. cities off the map. Hurricane Irma 86 photos.